China’s homegrown TD-SCDMA standard was officially launched last month. But it is only a trial, as no license is yet granted. The trial covers 8 Chinese cities and involves some 20,000 people. There are already speculations that it might last up to 2 years, but it might be utilized by the Olympics Organizing Committee come August. In the meantime, the telecoms industry looks set to go through a major restructuring, with the breaking up of China Unicom, China’s second largest mobile operator with one-third of the mobile subscribers. China Telecom and China Netcom will get a mobile standard each from China Unicom, which currently has both the GSM and CDMA standards. The restructuring will yield 3 telecom operators, each with a mobile standard and a fixed-line network. In the future each of these telcos will be issued a 3G standard, with China Mobile certain to be handed the local TD-SCDMA standard. These are still rumors and it seems all complicated, but it is certain that the government is looking to make the telecom industry more dynamic and competitive, and more importantly, more balanced. However it would seem hard to knock China Mobile, with two-thirds of the total mobile subscribers, off its leading position. In the end, whether 3G licenses will be granted before or after the Olympics, China with its 500+ million mobile subscribers, unique market conditions and consumer habits, looks set to create and lead mobile trends in the foreseeable future.
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